Entering 2026, many research organizations continue to assess Vietnam’s retail sector as one of the areas capable of sustaining growth amid a gradually recovering economy.
According to a recently released report by Maybank IBG Research, retail sales revenue in the first ten months of 2025 increased by 9.3% year-on-year in nominal CPI terms and by 7% in real CPI terms. Although higher than during the pandemic period, this growth rate remains below pre-COVID levels due to consumer sentiment not having fully recovered.
Maybank forecasts that shopping demand could improve more clearly in 2026 as macroeconomic conditions stabilize. Specifically, tariff-related risks are expected to ease and GDP growth is projected to be higher. Government programs to support aggregate demand are likely to continue, the labor market is gradually improving, and household businesses are facing less pressure from policy changes. In addition, a stable financial environment may generate positive wealth effects for consumers.
Maybank believes that the target of average GDP growth of 10% per year during the 2026–2030 period will make consumption one of the key drivers of the economy. The report notes that authorities are likely to continue prioritizing domestic demand stimulation to support growth.
According to data compiled by Maybank, after-tax profits of listed retail companies continued to improve markedly in the first three quarters of 2025, rising 53% in the first quarter, 51% in the second quarter, and 96% in the third quarter year-on-year. The main drivers were gradually increasing consumer demand, the continued expansion of modern retail’s market share, and improved operating efficiency as companies achieved larger scale.
Maybank forecasts that industry-wide profits could grow by 55% in 2025 and 26% in 2026. In its assessment, ongoing legal reforms may create advantages for large enterprises that comply with corporate governance standards.
Some of the changes include tighter management of informal retail channels, higher requirements for tax compliance and e-invoicing, stricter control of goods with unclear origins, and the promotion of e-commerce and modern retail models. These new regulations narrow the price advantage of informal channels, thereby creating conditions for modern retailers to expand their market share.
Nevertheless, Vietnam’s retail market remains fragmented. Apart from information technology and consumer electronics, the penetration of modern retail in many segments is still low, indicating significant growth potential for leading enterprises, especially in groceries, pharmaceuticals, and jewelry.
Maybank assesses that valuation prospects for Vietnam’s retail sector will be supported by a stable macroeconomic foundation, positive profit growth, a more transparent legal environment, and expectations of market upgrading. The report suggests that even if stock prices fluctuate in the short term, the sector’s fundamentals remain solid and current valuations present many opportunities.
Based on these factors, Maybank maintains a positive outlook for Vietnam’s retail sector in 2026. Leading companies are expected to benefit from the recovery in consumption and the restructuring of the market toward greater transparency and formalization.
Source: phattrienxanh.baotainguyenmoitruong.vn
